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St. Tammany Parish Economic Trends
     The St. Tammany Economic Development Foundation's

     Quarterly Report on the St. Tammany Parish Economy

     FIRST QUARTER 2004
    
  
EMPLOYMENT

First quarter 2004 total employment in St. Tammany Parish increased 1.0% over total employment in the first quarter last year.  Each month in the quarter employment stayed about 1.0% higher than employment in each respective month of the first quarter last year.  First quarter first time unemployment insurance claims increased by 23 claims compared to first time claims in the first quarter last year.  With an unemployment rate of 3.6% in March, St. Tammany Parish unemployment rate is one of the lowest rates in the entire state.  As a reference, the state’s March unemployment rate was 5.3% while the national unemployment rate was 5.7%

BUILDING PERMITS/REAL ESTATE

During the first quarter 2004, 19.7% more single family building permits were issued in the unincorporated portion of St. Tammany Parish compared to permits issued in the first quarter 2003.  March showed a spike in single family permits issued with an increase of 41.7% compared with permits issued last March.  The January over January increase was 16.7% while the February over February change was flat.  While the City of Mandeville had a first quarter increase, the City of Slidell showed a decrease in single family permits issued compared to the first quarter last year for each city.   First quarter commercial permits issued in the unincorporated portion of the Parish were 52.0% more than the commercial permits issued in the first quarter 2003.  While the first two months of 2004 saw four more permits each for January and February compared to respective months last year, the March over March increase was 182.4% or an increase of 31 permits.  The City of Slidell had a first quarter 40.0% increase in commercial permits issued while the City of Mandeville showed a decrease compared to the first quarter last year.  The monthly numbers for residential and commercial building permits in the cities of Slidell and Mandeville have a tendency to be erratic and not have the smoother trend evident in the unincorporated portion of the Parish.  Based on the trend of building permits issued in the first quarter, the unincorporated portion of the Parish is on a pace to set another record of total permits issued in a year.

Home sales for all of St. Tammany Parish continues growth as the first quarter sales of single family homes increased 4.7% compared to home sales in the first quarter 2003.  The biggest jump in home sales was in March where the month over month increase was 15.4% compared to last March.  The January over January comparison was a negative change while the February over February change was 6.0%.   First quarter total dollar sales volume was 17.2% higher than for first quarter 2003.  First quarter average sales price of the homes sold in the quarter was 11.8% higher than the average sales price in the first quarter last year.

RETAIL TRADE

Total sales in the Parish continue to enjoy significant growth with the first quarter total sales 9.2% higher than total sales in the first quarter last year.  The sales growth in January and February were 5.4% and 5.8%, respectively, compared to corresponding months last year.  The March over March growth was 14.2% and was responsible much of the quarter’s overall growth.  As new large box stores in the new Stirling Center at I-12 and LA 21 come on line, total Parish sales in future months compared to respective months last year are expected to show higher growth rates.

NEW BUSINESS

First quarter 2004 new businesses licensed in the Parish increased 115.9% over business licenses in the first quarter 2003.  During the first quarter 2004 the largest increase in licenses issued occurred in the February over February comparison where the increase was 384.6%.  The January over January increase was 117.9%.  The March over March comparison showed a drop in licenses issued from 99 in March 2003 to 37 in March 2004.

ANNOUNCED INVESTMENT

Although there were three more new announced projects in the first quarter for the Parish than the first quarter last year, total announced investment was down during the quarter compared to the first quarter last year.  Total announced investment in the first quarter last year was $42 million compared to the first quarter this year recording of $13.4 million. The nine announced projects for the first quarter this year are expected to yield 159 new permanent jobs and 110 construction jobs during the construction period.

UTILITIES

First quarter electric customer level increased 3.4% compared to the electric customer level in the first quarter 2003.  The monthly customer growth in the first two months of 2004 shows a growth rate of 3.3% and 3.2% for January and February, respectively.  The March over March customer growth rate was 3.6%, an accelerated growth rate, compared to the March customers last year.  Much of this accelerated growth is a reflection of the accelerated single family and commercial permit and construction activity in the parish.

ACCOMMODATIONS

Thanks to a very strong January, first quarter new occupancy tax collections were up 14.3% compared to the net occupancy tax collections in the first quarter last year.  In the January over January comparison, the increase was 64.3% over last January collections.  February over February collections were up 5.4% while this March collections lagged last March collections by 3.9%.  Hotel total receipts in the first quarter were up 11.8% compared to hotel receipts in the first quarter last year.  January receipts were up 18.9% over last January while February and March were up 7.8% and 10.4%, respectively, compared with corresponding months last year.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 3.5 points from March to April.  The Present Situation Index rose nearly six points while the Expectations Index increased more than three points from March to April. ”This latest improvement in consumer confidence was sparked by a more favorable assessments of current business and labor market conditions and increased consumer optimism about the next six months,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center.  “The job market, which has a major impact on confidence, appears to be gaining strength.  The percentage of consumers claiming jobs are hard to get is now at its lowest level since November 2002, and more consumers expect this trend to continue.”

ECONOMIC GROWTH

In March, The Conference Board indicated the U.S. index of leading indicators turned upward after a pause in March.  In March the leading index increased 0.3%, the coincident index increased 0.2% and the lagging index decreased 0.1%.   “The leading index has now increased 4.4% from its most recent low in March 2003, although growth has slowed somewhat in recent months.  The coincident index has now increased at a 2.2% annual rate from its most recent low in April 2003.  The growth rate of the coincident index has strengthened in recent months, and its strength has been wide spread.  The upturn in the leading index since March 2003 signaled stronger economic growth, and correspondingly, real GDP growth picked up to a 6.2% annual rate in the second half of 2003.  The current growth rate of the leading index is signaling a continuation of relatively strong economic growth in the near term.”    First quarter St. Tammany Parish economic growth was 5.7% compared with the first quarter 2003.  The twelve-month economic growth rate was 4.7% compared with the previous twelve-month period.  The five sectors making up the composite index of single family permits, employment, electric customers, total hotel receipts and total sales are the drivers in the St. Tammany economic engine.  Detailed growth of the five indicators making up the composite growth is found in the St. Tammany Composite Growth Index.

MISCELLANEOUS

A recent article in the Slidell Sentry-News reported the St. Tammany Parish Public School System was recognized for the thirteenth consecutive year as a model for what parents seek in schools.  “Only slightly more than 16 percent of the nation’s 15,573 public school districts were designated for this special honor” says William R. Mason, SchoolMatch Vice President.  “Our database confirms the St. Tammany Parish Public School System is among a select group fitting the model of ‘What Parents Want’.”  Some of the measurements are competitive academic test scores; accredited; recognized for excellence by a national foundation; competitive teacher salaries; above average in instructional expenditures; above average in expenditures for library/media services; known for small class size; and availability of programs at the secondary level.


ST. TAMMANY ECONOMY AT A GLANCE
St. Tammany Parish Employment

Parish Retail Sales

St. Tammany Electric Customers
Parish Announced Projects
Parish Single Family Building Permits
Parish Hotel Receipts

Parish MLS House Sales

Parish Net Occupancy Tax Collections

ST. TAMMANY ECONOMIC TRENDS is written by John C. Borland, CCR, Director of Borland Econometrics and published quarterly by The St. Tammany Economic Development Foundation.  The report is produced from information collected from various sectors and components of the St. Tammany Parish Community.   Correspondence should be addressed to:
21454 Koop Drive, Suite 2-E1, Mandeville, LA  70471.
Telephone: (985) 809-7874.  Web: www.stedf.org.
Copyright 2003.  All rights reserved.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Economic Indicators Units 1Q04 4Q03 % Change 4Q02 % Change 2004 2003 % Change
Retail Sales
St. Tammany Parish Retail Sales (a) $Mil. 735.1 804.4 -8.6% 673.3 9.2% 735.1 673.3 9.2%
St. Tammany Parish Total Sales Tax (a) $ 35,064,763 38,372,039 -8.6% 32,118,087 9.2% 35,064,763 32,118,087 9.2%
New Businesses (h)
   Total New Licenses No. 596 429 38.9% 276 115.9% 596 276 115.9%
Non-Agricultural Employment (Revised)(b)
Total Employment* No. 87,967 87,900 0.1% 87,100 1.0% 87,967 87,100 1.0%
Unemployed* No. 3,700 3,600 2.8% 4,100 -9.8% 3,700 4,100 -9.8%
Labor Force* No. 91,667 91,500 0.2% 91,200 0.5% 91,677 91,200 0.5%
Unemployment Rate (Revised)(b)*   4.0% 3.9% 2.6% 4.5% -10.2% 4.0% 4.5% -10.2%
Unemployment Insurance Claims by St. Tammany Resident (b)
Number of Initial Claims No. 300 310 -3.2% 277 8.3% 300 277 8.3%
Construction: Building Permits
Single Family Units
Unincorporated Area (c) No. 661 637 3.8% 552 19.7% 661 552 19.7%
Mandeville City (i) No 21 21 0.0% 19 10.5% 21 19 10.5%
Slidell City (j) No. 3 12 -75.0% 32 -90.6% 3 32 -90.6%
Commercial Units
Unincorporated Area (c) No. 114 115 -0.9% 75 52.0% 114 75 52.0%
Mandeville City (i) No. 5 4 25.0% 8 -37.5% 5 8 -37.5%
Slidell City (j) No. 7 11 -36.4% 5 40.0% 7 5 40.0%
Utilities
Electric (d)
  Total Accounts* No. 101,274 100,387 0.9% 97,972 3.4% 101,274 97,972 3.4%
Real Estate (St. Tammany Parish)(e)
Residential
Total Sales Volume $000 143,828.1 149,585.5 -3.8% 122,721.3 17.2% 143,828.1 122,721.3 17.2%
Number of Houses Sold No. 831 874 -4.9% 794 4.7% 831 794 4.7%
Average Sales Price* $ 172,415 170,961 0.9% 154,223 11.8% 173,078 154,561 12.0%
Announced Projects (f)
Total Investment $ 13,434,181 8,056,800 66.7% 42,011,600 -68.0% 13,434,181 42,011,600 -68.0%
Est. Permanent Jobs No. 159 98 62.2% 418 -62.0% 159 418 -62.0%
Est. Construction Jobs No. 110 80 37.5% 216 -49.1% 110 216 -49.1%
New Projects No. 8 4 100.0% 5 60.0% 8 5 60.0%
Expansion Projects No. 1 1 0.0% 4 -75.0% 1 4 -75.0%
Total Projects No. 9 5 80.0% 9 0.0% 9 9 0.0%
Hotel Receipts (g) $ 5,615,990 4,614,359 21.7% 5,021,972 11.8% 5,615,990 5,021,972 11.8%
Net Occupancy Tax Collections for St. Tammany Events Center (a)
Net Occupancy Tax Collections $ 58,594 46,307 26.5% 51,265 14.3% 58,594 51,265 14.3%
* Year-to-date data is an average.      n.a. = not available
Sources:  (a) St. Tammany Sheriff's Office;  (b) Louisiana Department of Labor;  (c) St. Tammany Parish Building Permit Office;  (d) Washington-St. Tammany Electric Co-op, CLECO;  (e)  Latter & Blum, Inc. Realtors through Gulf South Real Estate Information Net work, Inc. and may not represent all single family real estate transaction in St. Tammany Parish for reported periods;  (f) Louisiana Department of Economic Development;  (g) St. Tammany Parish Tourist and Convention Commission; (h) Louisiana Secretary of State and collected by North Shore Report; (i) Mandeville City Building Permit Office; (j) Slidell City Building Permit Office

 

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