St. Tammany Parish Economic
Trends The St.
Tammany Economic Development Foundation's Quarterly Report on the St. Tammany Parish Economy
FIRST QUARTER 2004
EMPLOYMENT
First quarter 2004 total employment in St. Tammany Parish
increased 1.0% over total employment in the first quarter last year. Each month in
the quarter employment stayed about 1.0% higher than employment in each respective month
of the first quarter last year. First quarter first time unemployment insurance
claims increased by 23 claims compared to first time claims in the first quarter last
year. With an unemployment rate of 3.6% in March, St. Tammany Parish unemployment
rate is one of the lowest rates in the entire state. As a reference, the
states March unemployment rate was 5.3% while the national unemployment rate was
5.7%
BUILDING PERMITS/REAL
ESTATE
During the first quarter 2004, 19.7% more single family building permits were
issued in the unincorporated portion of St. Tammany Parish compared to permits issued in
the first quarter 2003. March showed a spike in single family permits issued with an
increase of 41.7% compared with permits issued last March. The January over January
increase was 16.7% while the February over February change was flat. While the City
of Mandeville had a first quarter increase, the City of Slidell showed a decrease in
single family permits issued compared to the first quarter last year for each city.
First quarter commercial permits issued in the unincorporated portion of the Parish were
52.0% more than the commercial permits issued in the first quarter 2003. While the
first two months of 2004 saw four more permits each for January and February compared to
respective months last year, the March over March increase was 182.4% or an increase of 31
permits. The City of Slidell had a first quarter 40.0% increase in commercial
permits issued while the City of Mandeville showed a decrease compared to the first
quarter last year. The monthly numbers for residential and commercial building
permits in the cities of Slidell and Mandeville have a tendency to be erratic and not have
the smoother trend evident in the unincorporated portion of the Parish. Based on the
trend of building permits issued in the first quarter, the unincorporated portion of the
Parish is on a pace to set another record of total permits issued in a year.
Home sales for all of St. Tammany Parish continues growth as
the first quarter sales of single family homes increased 4.7% compared to home sales in
the first quarter 2003. The biggest jump in home sales was in March where the month
over month increase was 15.4% compared to last March. The January over January
comparison was a negative change while the February over February change was 6.0%.
First quarter total dollar sales volume was 17.2% higher than for first quarter
2003. First quarter average sales price of the homes sold in the quarter was 11.8%
higher than the average sales price in the first quarter last year.
RETAIL TRADE
Total sales in the Parish continue to enjoy significant
growth with the first quarter total sales 9.2% higher than total sales in the first
quarter last year. The sales growth in January and February were 5.4% and 5.8%,
respectively, compared to corresponding months last year. The March over March
growth was 14.2% and was responsible much of the quarters overall growth. As
new large box stores in the new Stirling Center at I-12 and LA 21 come on line, total
Parish sales in future months compared to respective months last year are expected to show
higher growth rates.
NEW BUSINESS
First quarter 2004 new businesses licensed in the Parish
increased 115.9% over business licenses in the first quarter 2003. During the first
quarter 2004 the largest increase in licenses issued occurred in the February over
February comparison where the increase was 384.6%. The January over January increase
was 117.9%. The March over March comparison showed a drop in licenses issued from 99
in March 2003 to 37 in March 2004.
ANNOUNCED INVESTMENT
Although there were three more new announced projects in the
first quarter for the Parish than the first quarter last year, total announced investment
was down during the quarter compared to the first quarter last year. Total announced
investment in the first quarter last year was $42 million compared to the first quarter
this year recording of $13.4 million. The nine announced projects for the first quarter
this year are expected to yield 159 new permanent jobs and 110 construction jobs during
the construction period.
UTILITIES
First quarter electric customer level increased 3.4% compared
to the electric customer level in the first quarter 2003. The monthly customer
growth in the first two months of 2004 shows a growth rate of 3.3% and 3.2% for January
and February, respectively. The March over March customer growth rate was 3.6%, an
accelerated growth rate, compared to the March customers last year. Much of this
accelerated growth is a reflection of the accelerated single family and commercial permit
and construction activity in the parish.
ACCOMMODATIONS
Thanks to a very strong January, first quarter new occupancy
tax collections were up 14.3% compared to the net occupancy tax collections in the first
quarter last year. In the January over January comparison, the increase was 64.3%
over last January collections. February over February collections were up 5.4% while
this March collections lagged last March collections by 3.9%. Hotel total receipts
in the first quarter were up 11.8% compared to hotel receipts in the first quarter last
year. January receipts were up 18.9% over last January while February and March were
up 7.8% and 10.4%, respectively, compared with corresponding months last year.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
The Conference Boards Consumer Confidence Index rose
3.5 points from March to April. The Present Situation Index rose nearly six points
while the Expectations Index increased more than three points from March to April.
This latest improvement in consumer confidence was sparked by a more favorable
assessments of current business and labor market conditions and increased consumer
optimism about the next six months, says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference
Boards Consumer Research Center. The job market, which has a major
impact on confidence, appears to be gaining strength. The percentage of consumers
claiming jobs are hard to get is now at its lowest level since November 2002, and more
consumers expect this trend to continue.
ECONOMIC GROWTH
In March, The Conference Board indicated the U.S. index of
leading indicators turned upward after a pause in March. In March the leading index
increased 0.3%, the coincident index increased 0.2% and the lagging index decreased 0.1%.
The leading index has now increased 4.4% from its most recent low in March
2003, although growth has slowed somewhat in recent months. The coincident index has
now increased at a 2.2% annual rate from its most recent low in April 2003. The
growth rate of the coincident index has strengthened in recent months, and its strength
has been wide spread. The upturn in the leading index since March 2003 signaled
stronger economic growth, and correspondingly, real GDP growth picked up to a 6.2% annual
rate in the second half of 2003. The current growth rate of the leading index is
signaling a continuation of relatively strong economic growth in the near term.
First quarter St. Tammany Parish economic growth was 5.7% compared with the
first quarter 2003. The twelve-month economic growth rate was 4.7% compared with the
previous twelve-month period. The five sectors making up the composite index of
single family permits, employment, electric customers, total hotel receipts and total
sales are the drivers in the St. Tammany economic engine. Detailed growth of the
five indicators making up the composite growth is found in the St. Tammany Composite
Growth Index.
MISCELLANEOUS
A recent article in the Slidell Sentry-News reported
the St. Tammany Parish Public School System was recognized for the thirteenth consecutive
year as a model for what parents seek in schools. Only slightly more than 16
percent of the nations 15,573 public school districts were designated for this
special honor says William R. Mason, SchoolMatch Vice President. Our
database confirms the St. Tammany Parish Public School System is among a select group
fitting the model of What Parents Want. Some of the measurements
are competitive academic test scores; accredited; recognized for excellence by a national
foundation; competitive teacher salaries; above average in instructional expenditures;
above average in expenditures for library/media services; known for small class size; and
availability of programs at the secondary level.
ST. TAMMANY ECONOMY AT
A GLANCE
St. Tammany Parish Employment
Parish Retail
Sales
St. Tammany Electric Customers
Parish Announced Projects
Parish Single Family Building
Permits
Parish Hotel Receipts
Parish MLS House Sales
Parish Net Occupancy Tax
Collections
ST. TAMMANY ECONOMIC TRENDS is written
by John C. Borland, CCR, Director of Borland Econometrics and published quarterly by The
St. Tammany Economic Development Foundation. The report is produced from information
collected from various sectors and components of the St. Tammany Parish Community.
Correspondence should be addressed to:
21454 Koop Drive, Suite 2-E1, Mandeville, LA 70471.
Telephone: (985) 809-7874. Web: www.stedf.org.
Copyright 2003. All rights reserved.
ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
Economic
Indicators
Units
1Q04
4Q03
%
Change
4Q02
%
Change
2004
2003
%
Change
Retail Sales
St. Tammany Parish Retail Sales (a)
$Mil.
735.1
804.4
-8.6%
673.3
9.2%
735.1
673.3
9.2%
St. Tammany Parish Total Sales Tax (a)
$
35,064,763
38,372,039
-8.6%
32,118,087
9.2%
35,064,763
32,118,087
9.2%
New Businesses (h)
Total New Licenses
No.
596
429
38.9%
276
115.9%
596
276
115.9%
Non-Agricultural
Employment (Revised)(b)
Total Employment*
No.
87,967
87,900
0.1%
87,100
1.0%
87,967
87,100
1.0%
Unemployed*
No.
3,700
3,600
2.8%
4,100
-9.8%
3,700
4,100
-9.8%
Labor Force*
No.
91,667
91,500
0.2%
91,200
0.5%
91,677
91,200
0.5%
Unemployment Rate (Revised)(b)*
4.0%
3.9%
2.6%
4.5%
-10.2%
4.0%
4.5%
-10.2%
Unemployment Insurance
Claims by St. Tammany Resident (b)
Number of Initial Claims
No.
300
310
-3.2%
277
8.3%
300
277
8.3%
Construction: Building
Permits
Single Family Units
Unincorporated Area (c)
No.
661
637
3.8%
552
19.7%
661
552
19.7%
Mandeville City (i)
No
21
21
0.0%
19
10.5%
21
19
10.5%
Slidell City (j)
No.
3
12
-75.0%
32
-90.6%
3
32
-90.6%
Commercial Units
Unincorporated Area (c)
No.
114
115
-0.9%
75
52.0%
114
75
52.0%
Mandeville City (i)
No.
5
4
25.0%
8
-37.5%
5
8
-37.5%
Slidell City (j)
No.
7
11
-36.4%
5
40.0%
7
5
40.0%
Utilities
Electric (d)
Total Accounts*
No.
101,274
100,387
0.9%
97,972
3.4%
101,274
97,972
3.4%
Real Estate (St.
Tammany Parish)(e) Residential
Total Sales Volume
$000
143,828.1
149,585.5
-3.8%
122,721.3
17.2%
143,828.1
122,721.3
17.2%
Number of Houses Sold
No.
831
874
-4.9%
794
4.7%
831
794
4.7%
Average Sales Price*
$
172,415
170,961
0.9%
154,223
11.8%
173,078
154,561
12.0%
Announced Projects
(f)
Total Investment
$
13,434,181
8,056,800
66.7%
42,011,600
-68.0%
13,434,181
42,011,600
-68.0%
Est. Permanent Jobs
No.
159
98
62.2%
418
-62.0%
159
418
-62.0%
Est. Construction Jobs
No.
110
80
37.5%
216
-49.1%
110
216
-49.1%
New Projects
No.
8
4
100.0%
5
60.0%
8
5
60.0%
Expansion Projects
No.
1
1
0.0%
4
-75.0%
1
4
-75.0%
Total Projects
No.
9
5
80.0%
9
0.0%
9
9
0.0%
Hotel Receipts (g)
$
5,615,990
4,614,359
21.7%
5,021,972
11.8%
5,615,990
5,021,972
11.8%
Net Occupancy Tax
Collections for St. Tammany Events Center (a)
Net Occupancy Tax Collections
$
58,594
46,307
26.5%
51,265
14.3%
58,594
51,265
14.3%
* Year-to-date data is an average.
n.a. = not available
Sources: (a) St. Tammany Sheriff's Office; (b) Louisiana
Department of Labor; (c) St. Tammany Parish Building Permit Office; (d)
Washington-St. Tammany Electric Co-op, CLECO; (e) Latter & Blum, Inc.
Realtors through Gulf South Real Estate Information Net work, Inc. and may not represent
all single family real estate transaction in St. Tammany Parish for reported
periods; (f) Louisiana Department of Economic Development; (g) St. Tammany
Parish Tourist and Convention Commission; (h) Louisiana Secretary of State and collected
by North Shore Report; (i) Mandeville City Building Permit Office; (j) Slidell City
Building Permit Office