The employment picture in St. Tammany Parish continues to improve, as the third quarter employment numbers were 2.2% higher than employment in the third quarter last year.  The employment gap comparison between this year and last year began to widen starting in July of this year.  It appears that most of the employment gains over the past four months were drawn from the unemployment portion of the labor force.  The Parish labor force in the third quarter grew at a 1.1% rate resulting in a drop in the unemployment level compared to the unemployment level in the third quarter last year, 3.7% versus 4.7% or a drop of 21.5%.   The strength of employment can also be seen in the number of initial unemployment insurance claims by St. Tammany residents.  Third quarter initial unemployment insurance claims were 29.0% lower than for the third quarter last year.  Year-to-date claims were 3.0% lower than for year-to-date period last year.  Although a low unemployment rate looks good, it can also create some problems for employers looking to hire skilled workers within the Parish.  A very low unemployment rate means a larger portion of the unemployed are people who are unemployable, with little or no skills, thus making it difficult in locating skilled workers capable of filling vacant positions.

St. Tammany Parish unincorporated area single-family building permits issued in the third quarter was 9.9% higher than were issued in the third quarter last year.   The growth rate would have been higher except for the drop in the September over September comparison.  Year-to-date single-family permits issued in the unincorporated area of the Parish were 13.5% higher than for the year-to-date period last year.  Third quarter single family permits issued in cities of Mandeville and Slidell were up 129.4% for Mandeville and down 20.0% for Slidell.  Year-to-date single family permit issuances for these two cities showed a 55.2% increase for Mandeville and a 41.0% decrease for Slidell compared to the year-to-date period last year.  Commercial building permits issued in the third quarter for the unincorporated portion of the Parish were 23.9% lower than for the third quarter last year.  Year-to-date, commercial building permits issued were down 5.7% compared to year-to-date period last year.   Third quarter commercial building permits issued in Mandeville and Slidell was up 75.0% and 11.1%, respectively, compared to the third quarter last year.  Year-to-date commercial building permits issued in these two cities were down 12.5% and 3.6%, respectively, compared to year-to-date period last year.  Increased commercial building permits issued in Mandeville and Slidell in the third quarter compared to the third quarter issuances last year helped narrow the year-to-date over year-to-date negative gap.

Heading into the slow housing sales season, St. Tammany total housing unit sales in the third quarter showed a decrease of 4.1% compared to total housing unit sales in the third quarter last year.  Most of the decline of third quarter over third quarter unit sales occurred in July and August.  September unit sales exceeded last September sales.  Year-to-date housing unit sales continued to be ahead of last year-to-date sales by 4.8%.  Third quarter total dollar sales volume was 3.8% lower than for third quarter last year.  Year-to-date total dollar sales volume also continues ahead of last year-to-date volume sales by 9.8%.  The third quarter average house sold price rose 1.4% compared to the house sold price in the third quarter last year, or from $184,805 to $187,354.  Year-to-date, the average price rose 4.8% compared to the average price in the year-to-date period last year.

Third quarter total sales for St. Tammany Parish were 5.0% higher than total sales in the third quarter 2003.  Year-to-date Parish total sales were 8.2% higher compared to year-to-date sales in 2003.  Of the three months in the third quarter, August registered the highest month over month comparison with a 7.9% gain over August 2003 sales.

Third quarter indicated new business licenses were 368.8% higher than new business licenses reported in the third quarter last year.   Year-to-date new business licenses were 76.6% higher than year-to-date licenses last year.  As reported in previous Trends Reports new businesses licensed in the Parish are reported by the Northshore Report. This reporting is somewhat behind the actual licensing as the Northshore Report gets the new business information several weeks after the licenses are actually issued.  In any case, this is the latest information with regard to business licenses.

Third quarter announced projects were significantly lower than were announced in the third quarter last year.  This also is the case when looking at the year-to-date announced projects performance.  There was one new project and three expansion projects in the third quarter.  Year-to-date announced new projects numbered seventeen while year-to-date expansion projects numbered six.   The number of expected permanent jobs from all announced projects, to date numbered 413 jobs compared to 1,037 permanent jobs through September last year.  Future announced project information produced by the Louisiana Department of Economic Development may be sketchy and/or delayed due largely to the retirement of the person who was performing this data.

Electric customer levels have been accelerating over the past several months.  Third quarter electric customer count was 4.1% higher than the customer count in the third quarter last year.  As a comparison, the January 2004 over January 2003 electric customer increase was 3.3%.  Most of this accelerated electric customer growth is the result of continued growth of residential and commercial construction.

Hotel receipts in the third quarter struggled to maintain a one percent lead over collected hotel receipts in the third quarter last year.   Year-to-date collected hotel receipts edged 0.5% ahead of year-to-date collected receipts in 2003.  September was the lead month in the third quarter receipts collected with a 12.2% advantage over receipts for September last year.  The third quarter net occupancy tax collections (bed tax) for St. Tammany Parish was 1.3% ahead of bed tax collections during the third quarter last year.  Year-to-date bed tax collections were ahead of year-to-date collections last year by 0.5%.  September was the strongest month in the third quarter as its collections were ahead of last September collections by 36.6%.

The national consumer confidence declined again in October following declines in August and September.  ”Subdued expectations, as opposed to eroding present-day conditions, were the major cause behind October’s decline in consumer confidence,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center.  “And, while consumers’ assessment of the labor market this month showed a moderate improvement, the gain was not sufficient to ease concerns about job growth in months ahead.  Consumers’ assessment of overall current conditions was mixed.  Consumers’ outlook for the next six months turned more cautious.  The employment outlook was also more subdued.”  The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a monthly sample of 5,000 U. S. households.

The September leading economic indicators comprising the U.S. leading index decreased 0.1 percent, according to The Conference Board.  This was the fourth consecutive month of declines as the “weakness in the last four months has become more widespread.  However, these declines in the leading index have not been large enough nor have they persisted long enough to signal an end to current economic expansion.  The coincident index, an index of current economic activity, increased again in September and its growth continues to be widespread.  Real GDP growth slowed to a 3.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, but appears to have picked up again in the third quarter.  While the leading index is not yet signaling a downturn, the growth rate of the leading index has slowed below its long-term growth rate, which is consistent with real GDP continuing to grow in the near term, but more slowly than its long-term trend rate.”  In the third quarter, the St. Tammany economy grew at a 1.9% rate for the quarter compared to the third quarter last year.  For the twelve-month period ending in the third quarter, the St. Tammany economic growth was 3.4% compared to the previous twelve-month period.  Four of the five of the components making up the composite index showed continued growth through the quarter including employment, sales, electric customers, and single family housing permits.  Low mortgage rates and continued high demand for housing are driving the single-family permit issuances and electric customer levels.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS